First and foremost I'm starting with Bobby Dassey's testimony.
-Bobby places himself home at 2:30-2:45 pm in his first police statement. Regardless of his recollection of events, he's the first home to notice Teresa's vehicle and state she is alive. I believe this statement to be true for a number of reasons, mostly because...
-Teresa is verified alive by the bus driver at 330-345pm, when Brendan and Blaine are dropped off from school. I think the time on Bobby's account may be off, but more due to a faulty memory than anything diabolical. More explained later.
-Scott Tadych and Bobby cross paths on their way home/hunting, respectively. It's important to note that... -Scott's mother is in the hospital this day which is why he doesn't stay home long, also the reason why Brendan's mother comes home and leaves around 5-530pm, to go to the hospital to visit her before 6pm.
-Blaine Dassey is picked up by his friend's mother before his mother leaves to visit the hospital.
-At 6pm, Brendan takes a call from Blaine's boss and explains he went trick or treating.
This places Brendan at home up until 6ish pm. At this point I dismiss the entire prosecution's argument of Brendan going over to Steven's home and raping/murdering Teresa Halbach. Aside from the lack of any blood, semen, dna in Avery's house, he has alibis all the way up until 6. In fact, I believe she is (possibly) already dead by this point. If not dying. Why?
-Earl Avery and his friend Robert Fabian were hunting rabbits until about 520pm. Upon returning past Steven's residence, Fabian testified of a fire in a burn barrel, the odor of burning plastic, and talking to Steven Avery. Fabian has no reason to lie and no ulterior motives.
-Added to this, Steven's girlfriend calls around 530pm and they have a phone conversation that lasts roughly 15 minutes, ~5:45pm.
-The thing that really piqued my interest was the last phone call. Steven placed two phone calls around 2:30 pm to Teresa. He placed another one nearly two hours later, around 4:35 which lasted roughly thirteen seconds. He placed the first two under a blocked phone number and the third from his home. Why? The first two he knew were going right to voicemail. One lasted nine seconds. One he hung up before the phone even picked up to ring. But the third lasted thirteen seconds two hours later at 4:35? He wanted to hear if it was going to ring in the burn barrel if anyone else called. After all, there were more people planning on coming to the bonfire, he didn't want that to go off and signal anything strange. I believe this to be true based off the fact that the phone and camera were both found inside the burn barrel.
-The next point is purely my speculation based upon the evidence presented in testimony and Brendon Dassey's second confession,
which I feel he isn't lead at all and talks freely about what he saw and what actually happened[1] . Based upon Bobby Dassey, Blaine Dassey, and the school bus driver, Teresa was alive up until 345pm-ish, with Steven identified on the property the entire time. Neither Dassey's mother nor Blaine recalled seeing the vehicle at ~5pm when the mother returned and Blaine left to go trick or treating. The last cellphone activity was 4:21pm. That gives Avery a roughly half hour window to incapacitate Halbach without her making enough noise to get the attention of the two teens only a few hundred yards away. The only thing Brendan reported seeing in the fire pit later was stab wounds to the abdomen, which would not kill a victim quickly or quietly, depending upon the location of the cut. Given that none of Halbach's DNA was found in Avery's home, I do not believe she ever entered. The bone fragments suggested she was shot in the head but I do not believe that within close proximity the boys would not remember that noise. I believe Avery approached her as she was wrapping up her shoot (roughly a half an hour after beginning, ~245ish) and attempted to tie her up and throw her in the back of her SUV. I believe he approached her with the .22 caliber rifle trained upon her while also armed with a knife. I think he probably told her something along the lines of if she makes any noise, he'll kill her. That would explain the lack of screams (and I'm discrediting any testimony set by investigators who tried to lead Brendan with their questioning or suggestiveness), and the lack of a gunshot within earshot of the Dassey home. He also has the history of approaching at gunpoint, re: the wife of the deputy many years before that he had run off road.
-From the testimony, he drives past Chuck Avery's house to hide the SUV on the back of the property and camouflages it to avoid detection. At this point he also disarms the auto battery.
-I'm not going to speculate upon whether she was raped or not, there's evidence to suggest that behavior in his past but there's no evidence in the murder because there was no body to examine post-mortem. All I will say is that based upon Dassey's interview she was stabbed in the stomach at some point, and shot in the head from the found bone fragments.
-This happens before Avery returns, the next time he is sighted at home is Robert Fabian having a conversation with him at 5:20, however the burn barrel is already producing smoke and smelling of plastic. Dassey states in his interview that Avery used a sled, a plastic or rubber sled "like a fishing thing" (someone might have more knowledge of this than me), to transport the body back to his property. This leads me to believe based upon the dried blood in the back of the SUV that Avery did not initially take the body back. I think that would have taken too much time and effort, and he left it until after nightfall.
Sunset was at 4:41pm that particular day, and I think he wouldn't want to move a body until long after dark, for obvious reasons.[2] She may not have died initially either with a stab wound to the stomach, but she wouldn't have been strong enough to escape from the back of the SUV in the location it was found. This may have lead to the disconnected battery, being he didn't want her to set off the car alarm from the inside if possible.
-This may be why a cadaver dog set off on a golf cart behind the main property. Avery could have possibly pulled the sled behind the cart, though Dassey stated Avery pulled it himself (possibly a lie by Avery?), to minimize effort.
-We know Avery is home at 5:20 from Fabian, 5:30 from Jodi calling from jail, and 5:45 from the length of the phone call. I think he goes back to the SUV in this period and moves the body back to the location of the fire.
-The next event doesn't seem to happen until around 8pm. Brendan gets a phone call from Steven asking him to bring the golf cart over and join the bonfire. The collect garbage, an old cabinet, and the front seat of a suzuki van to throw on the fire. Brendan's mother calls around 9pm to see if Brendan has a jacket on. Jodi calls around 9:30. Somewhere in between these two, Steven moves the fire around with a shovel and Brendan is able to see part of a few toes, maybe a torso, and possibly a forehead. This is according to his first/second interview. In the first one of the agents mentions bone fragments burned into the seat they threw into the fire. I cannot confirm if this is true or false, however I don't feel the need for the special investigators to lie as they have no influence under Manitowoc County Sheriff's department.
-At this point I strongly believe Avery threatened Dassey as Dassey testified without prodding from investigators, that he would stab Dassey in the stomach if he ever talked about what he witnessed.
~10pm Brendan leaves the fire and goes home to talk to his mom about the hospital visit and see how Scott's mom is doing.
-11pm Blaine Dassey returns and notices Steven standing near the fire with a shovel. I don't believe the body has finished cremating at this point. Steven may have tried to spread the bones and realized he would have to move them. I believe he did all of this before the night ended, trying to move the bones to a secondary location where he knew a lot of animal bones would have been. I don't believe the quarry was the original burn location, I think that's just where he tried to hide the rest of the remains.